By Lefteris Moutis/ email@example.com
Panathinaikos and Olympiacos will go up against each other at the Olympic Sports Center Athens, in the biggest game of this round in the EuroLeague. The Greens are the ones who are burning more for the win in terms of their placement (not that Olympiacos are cruising, of course), while the Reds want the away win for reasons that have more to do with their mentality since, in 3 games between them this season (two of them in the Peace & Friendship Stadium, in fact), they count as many defeats by their “eternal rivals.”
Zalgiris – Barcelona
From this game we’ll hold on to Ante Tomic’s Over 11,5 points. Barcelona’s Croatian center has been in good shape recently, reminding us of his old good self. Overall, Barcelona’s image has improved since Pesic took over, while against Zalgiris the Catalans will try to correct the impression they left in the crushing home defeat by Real. Tomic will play close to 20 minutes and, the easy way or the hard way, he’ll be able to find 6 shots on target in order to get us paid.
Maccabi want this game more since they’re fighting to qualify for the next stage, but the difference in dynamics between the two teams is too big. The Russians are coming off an away loss (to Valencia) and they surely want to react, while their aim is to lock in first place as soon as possible in the regular season of the EuroLeague. The 1,32 on the away win can be included on one of our bets with similar payouts.
Armani Milan – Anadolu Efes
Bryant Dunston’s line (9,5 at 1,65) is rather low for this game, as Milan are not good defensively, while we generally expect an open game between two indifferent teams that don’t put much emphasis on defense. Efes’s American center, who will play close to 26-28 minutes, can find 5 shots on target to confirm our prediction.
In the game of this round we are not going to be concerned with betting on the winner since the results in derbies are always wide open. But we find some value in several player bets, which we are going to select. Starting with Panathinaikos, James Gist’s Over 9,5 has some value since he has had some good games against Olympiacos this season and there have only been a few times the American didn’t score double digits at home in the EuroLeague. From Olympiacos, we will take McLean’s Over 7,5 since he has confirmed the Over in all confrontations between the “eternal rivals,” both at the Peace & Friendship Stadium as well as the Olympic Sports Center Athens, for the domestic league and the EuroLeague.
Finally, we will also include Kostas Papanikolaou’s Under 8,5 in our choices, because, thanks to Brown, he might get fewer shot attempts than those he usually takes on. In any case, Olympiacos’s Greek ace finds several points moving in the paint, mostly from Spanoulis’s passes, but this is a collaboration that Panathinaikos can limit with their forwards. The only scenario whereby Papanikolaou’s Under is not confirmed is if he finds enough open threes in the game and makes them.
Fenerbahce will try to lower the game’s rhythm and limit Real to a low tempo, but in Madrid, things are always tough. The limit is set at 161,5 points and the two teams will probably exceed it. Besides, Real score 86 points on average at home and Fenerbahce score 80 in every away game. In their derbies, the Turks always have a high score, so the Over will probably be confirmed.
Ante Tomic Over 11,5 / @1,75 at OPAP
Maccabi Tel Aviv – CSKA Moscow 1 / @1,32 at OPAP
Bryant Dunston Over 9,5 / @1,65 at OPAP
James Gist Over 9,5 / @1,65 at OPAP
Jamel McLean Over 7,5 / @1,75 at OPAP
Kostas Papanikolaou Under 8,5 / @1,75 at OPAP
Real – Fenerbahce Over 161,5 / @1,75 at OPAP